With Easter being last weekend, I thought of an old story about what happened after Jesus returned to Heaven. Some angels asked about the plan to continue his work on earth. What would happen if the few disciples he had trained failed to continue his work? Jesus said, “I have no plan B.”
I heard this story used to teach Christians the importance of evangelism. I’d like to apply it differently. My point today is if you are the all-knowing, almighty God, then you don’t need a plan B. The rest of us need to plan for uncertainty. We need Plan B, Plan C, Plan D, etc.
My wife says when you are watching a scary movie, to be alert when things seem resolved and there is nice music, because something bad is about to happen. Isn’t that kind of like how supply chain is?
Just when things start to even out in the trade war with China, the music gets nice, then BOOM – Covid 19. Just when you think things are getting to a new steady-state after the pandemic, the music gets nice, then BOOM – an ice storm, … factory fire, … the Suez Canal is blocked … … …
I read an article several years ago by someone who said that a company should not publish a contingency plan because it signified a lack of confidence. To have a contingency plan was planning to fail. I wonder how their company managed during the covid crisis and other recent supply chain disruptions.
Anyone working in supply chain understands disruptions will happen. If you are not ready for them, you are likely to incur unnecessary costs, disruptions, and lost sales. Even when you are ready for them you are likely to incur unnecessary costs, disruptions, and lost sales, but hopefully they won’t be as severe.
A few years ago, Ockam’s Razor posted a talk about Einstein’s process of scientific inquiry. Many of Einstein’s theories and other “major advances in science have come through checking out the answers to ‘what if’ questions.”
We in Supply Chain must keep asking our own “what if” questions.
- What if there is another disruption of our supply chain?
- What if one of our suppliers unexpectedly shuts down for an extended period?
- What if one of our plants unexpectedly shuts down for an extended period?
- What if one of our warehouses unexpectedly shuts down for an extended period?
- What if one of our distributors unexpectedly shuts down for an extended period?
- What if something happens and we can’t get any ingredients / supplies / components from overseas? Or from Mexico? Or from <fill in the blank>?
- What if international commerce is suspended and we can’t ship or receive anything across international borders?
- What if inter-state commerce is suspended and we can’t ship or receive anything across state borders?
Much has been published in recent months about supply chain resliliency and contingency planning. In a Forbes article about recovering from the Suez Canal Debacle, Edward Segal wrote, “The blockage of the international waterway focused attention on the vulnerabilities of supply chains, the importance of having crisis management and contingency plans, and how similar crisis situations could be prevented or managed more effectively.”
This and many other recent articles have pointed out that contingency plans are just part of having a resilient supply chain. The Association for Supply Chain Management recently teamed up with The Economist Intelligence Unit to create a benchmarking tool on capabilities that increase supply chain resilience. Their research revealed several opportunities for improvement that can help companies to better withstand turbulent times. Improving business continuity plans and playbooks is just one of the opportunities.
One day the very survival of your company may depend on having contingency plans ready together with the intelligence to know when to activate them and the solid relationships and strong leadership needed to execute them.
What if we forgot to ask what if? Then science would never make any advances and we in supply chain would always be caught by surprise when something bad happens just when the music gets nice.
Here are some other interesting articles on the topic:
https://www.eiu.com/n/ready-for-anything-turbulence-and-the-resilience-imperative/
https://hbr.org/2021/03/the-latest-supply-chain-disruption-plastics