The sun just set on another year, a new year is dawning, and there are clouds on the horizon.  Will these clouds turn into a storm?  If so, how bad will it be?

Demand planners are used to forecast volatility, but there are also many elements of external risk that could significantly impact our businesses.  Will the market continue toward a larger downturn? Will Covid surge again, or some other disease? Are the recent attacks on utilities in the Carolinas and in the Pacific Northwest the beginning of some larger threat to our infrastructure?  What major cyber-attacks might we see in 2023?  How will the price of oil and natural gas be impacted by the ongoing war in Ukraine?

We live in a world full of risk. If the COVID-19 pandemic taught us anything it should be that we cannot take current stability for granted. 

As we turn our eyes to the new year, I’m thinking about how we build risk assessment into our S&OP processes.  Some tools we might use include a risk register, SWOT analysis, probability and impact matrix, a tornado diagram, modeling and simulation, probabilistic analysis, or expert judgement. 

What tools have you used to identify and manage risk as part of your Demand Planning or S&OP process?

Please take our supply chain planning risk survey and let us know what tools you use.  We will share a summary of results with all who leave their e-mail and post them here. Results will also inform blogs or articles to be published later in 2023.

1/11/23 – The survey is now closed. Watch our website for results to be posted soon.

2/1/23 – see survey results published at http://shivesupplychainsolutions.com/2023/02/01/risk-planning-survey-results/