Artificial Intelligence and Human Creativity

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Just about everywhere I turn I find discussion of Artificial Intelligence (AI).  People are talking about how it will affect Demand Planning, How it will affect Project Management, How it will affect banking, and so on. Some people fear that AI will take their jobs.

The American Heritage® Dictionary defines Intelligence as, “The ability to acquire, understand, and use knowledge.” They define Artificial Intelligence as, “The ability of a computer or other machine to perform those activities that are normally thought to require intelligence.” However, creative is defined as, “Characterized by originality and expressiveness; imaginative.” [i]

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E Pluribus Unim for Savings Projects

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E Pluribus Unim – out of many, one.

Today we celebrate the Declaration of Independence. We mark the birth of the United States of America from July 4th 1776. But that was early in the war for independence from the British Empire.

Even after the American Revolution ended, the 13 states operating under the Articles of Confederation was not a sustainable situation.  It was not until the U.S. Constitution was drafted that our country’s enduring structure was created. This structure included the amendment process that led to the freedom of slaves, voting rights for the disenfranchised, and other changes toward the goal of “Liberty and Justice for all.”

Maybe I am stretching the point a little, but our federal government coming together out of thirteen independent states reminds me of a project several years ago.  The company was considering consolidation of twenty different segments of products being from multiple copackers into one central location.  But after the proposals were in and analysis done, the project was not meeting the company’s hurdles.  I worked with finance to analyze payback and return separately for each of the twenty separate segments.  Eleven of the segments could meet hurdles independently. A twelfth segment had synergies. 

We put these twelve segments together into one project and dropped the other eight.  Out of the many, we were able to combine some into one that worked. For more on this project – see case study.

This kind of analysis is good practice for a company that is seeking to optimize return on their capital investments. One project can be broken into many components and analyzed separately to maximize return on investment. Most capital projects have multiple options of different scopes or solutions.  Projects are often like bills in Congress with riders attached for things that the submitting plant or division desires, which often do not actually add to the return.  Breaking the project into components and options and analyzing the return for each will help focus the best investment of a company’s limited capital budget.

Risk Planning for 2023

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The sun just set on another year, a new year is dawning, and there are clouds on the horizon.  Will these clouds turn into a storm?  If so, how bad will it be?

Demand planners are used to forecast volatility, but there are also many elements of external risk that could significantly impact our businesses.  Will the market continue toward a larger downturn? Will Covid surge again, or some other disease? Are the recent attacks on utilities in the Carolinas and in the Pacific Northwest the beginning of some larger threat to our infrastructure?  What major cyber-attacks might we see in 2023?  How will the price of oil and natural gas be impacted by the ongoing war in Ukraine?

We live in a world full of risk. If the COVID-19 pandemic taught us anything it should be that we cannot take current stability for granted. 

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Amazing Groups

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Our brains are wonderful.  It is amazing how we synthesize and find connections between multiple sources of information.  I do that with my training and experience in project management, demand planning, engineering, and church leadership.

Today I am thinking of the aspects of leading a group. I’ve participated in and led many groups and teams at church, at school, in corporate offices, in sports, and in performing arts. You probably have also been in many groups and teams. What makes some groups more effective than others?

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Reflections on Another Wild Year

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Think back to the beginning of this year. Everything was still shutdown.  We were waiting for the number of COVID-19 cases to drop off so things could start opening again.  We hoped vaccines would get the pandemic under control and help boost economic growth so we could return to a normal way of life. Upwards of 20 million people were still unemployed, but consumer sentiment was up from an eight-year low in April 2020.

Then 2021 happened! And what a year it has been. Just think about some of the unexpected events we saw.

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Bicycling, and Planning Software??

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What do long bicycle rides have in common with new planning software?  Maybe not much except they are two things I’ve been spending a lot of time on lately.

I completed my first cycling century (100 miles) at the end of last month. It took a lot of dedicated training time to get ready for it.  I’ve also been busy the past several months helping clients investigate new software for supply and demand planning and MRP.  It takes a lot of work to find a good fit.

When you commit to an endurance sport like a cycling century or a marathon it is important to count the cost and prepare well before you start.  If you don’t prepare adequately, you probably won’t be able to finish. Likewise, if you do not prepare well for your software selection, you may find yourself with a tool that does not get you over the metaphorical finish line of getting your planners out of Excel spreadsheets for planning.

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Phugoid Oscillations and Congested Ports

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When I was studying for my Private Pilot certification, I learned about phugoid oscillations. Most airplanes that are disturbed from level flight will go through a series of diminishing oscillations until they reach level flight again (if no controls are moved and the trim isn’t changed). 

An aircraft that will eventually stabilize itself from minor deviations has aerodynamic stability.  Most aircraft are built to be aerodynamically stable.  If the pilot stays hands off, the plane will right itself from minor deviations.

Figure 1 – Phugoid Oscillations

Supply Chain Oscillations

We may be seeing something akin to phugoid oscillations in the congestion at ports.  Port congestion is peaking again in California and is also building on the east coast.[1]  California port congestion last peaked in the first quarter.  The congestion was eventually capped by vessel supply.  As those vessels were delayed in their normal rounds, other temporary vessels have been added.  Now there is another round of congestion building.

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Frozen Forecasts?

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Should we have frozen forecasts? I’m not talking predicting cold weather or demand for French fries.  I’m talking about the concept of having a horizon for which forecast changes are not allowed.

From time-to-time I hear the suggestion that “we should freeze forecasts and not allow any changes within current month” (or some other period).  I advocate against this practice.

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