Have you ever heard or made statements like these:

• “Our forecast error is down for the third month in a row, showing that our new stat models are working.” 
• “I want to recognize Susan for having the lowest forecast error last month, Congratulations Susan!”
• “Forecast error went up for two months in a row, we need to retune the stat models.”

If so, you may want to rethink your credentials as a demand planner.

Demand planners specialize in using statistics to generate forecasts.  But we often overlook the application of statistics to differentiate between common variation and assignable cause in the very metrics we use to measure accuracy.  This may be an area where Demand Planners can learn something from Lean Six Sigma practitioners, and start using Process Behavior Charts to identify when a change in forecast accuracy is significant. 

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